UBI Isn't Radical Enough

The Overton Window Ate Your Revolution

Universal basic income used to be a fringe idea. Utopian. The kind of thing you'd hear at a DSA meetup or a Silicon Valley dinner party, depending on which flavor of UBI the speaker preferred. Now it's in policy white papers. Andrew Yang ran a presidential campaign on it. Elon Musk says it's inevitable. Mark Zuckerberg thinks it's worth exploring.

When billionaires endorse your redistribution plan, something has gone wrong.

This isn't a conspiracy theory. It's a pattern recognition problem. UBI, as currently proposed by most of its loudest champions, gives people cash while leaving every other structure of extraction firmly in place. Landlords still own the housing. Insurance companies still gatekeep healthcare. Creditors still collect. You get a check. They adjust prices. The math is not complicated.

What the Pilots Actually Showed

The evidence for cash transfers is genuinely strong. The Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED), run by then-mayor Michael Tubbs from 2019 to 2021, gave 125 residents $500 per month with no strings attached. The results were clear: full-time employment went up by 12 percentage points. Recipients reported lower anxiety and depression. They spent money on food, utilities, and car repairs, the unglamorous infrastructure of staying alive.

Finland ran a two-year experiment from 2017 to 2018, giving 2,000 unemployed citizens 560 euros monthly. Participants reported better wellbeing. Employment effects were modest but positive. Nobody quit working to play video games, despite what the op-ed pages predicted.

The Alaska Permanent Fund has distributed oil revenue dividends to every resident since 1982. It's wildly popular across party lines. It reduces poverty. It works.

So what's the problem?

The problem is scope. These experiments prove that giving people money helps people. That's true and it's worth knowing. But they don't test what happens when you give everyone money inside a system specifically designed to capture that money on the other end.

The Absorption Problem

Here's the thing nobody in the UBI discourse wants to talk about honestly. If you hand every American $1,000 a month and change nothing else, you've just created $1,000 a month of new demand chasing the same constrained supply of housing, healthcare, and education.

Landlords know this. They can read policy proposals. The moment UBI passes, rents adjust. Not because landlords are uniquely evil (though some are), but because that's what happens in markets with inelastic supply and information asymmetry. If your tenants all have an extra $1,000 and you control a scarce asset they need, you'd be leaving money on the table by not raising rent.

This isn't hypothetical. We watched it happen in real time with expanded unemployment benefits during COVID. Housing costs exploded. Not everywhere. Not evenly. But the mechanism is well-documented. When you increase purchasing power without increasing supply or constraining prices, prices rise to absorb the difference.

The same logic applies to healthcare. The same logic applies to higher education. The same logic applies to childcare. Cash transfers into broken markets don't fix the markets. They just make the extraction more efficient.

What UBI Leaves Out

The most honest version of the UBI argument is this: "People should have enough money to live." Agreed. Completely. Unambiguously.

But that goal doesn't require UBI specifically. It requires decommodification, removing essential goods from the market entirely so that having money isn't a prerequisite for survival.

Public housing. Not "affordable housing" programs that funnel subsidies to developers. Actual public housing, well-maintained, destigmatized, available to anyone who wants it. Vienna has done this for a century. Over 60% of Viennese residents live in subsidized or public housing. Rents across the entire city stay lower because the public option sets a price floor that private landlords have to compete with.

Universal healthcare. Not "expanded access." Not ACA marketplaces with $8,000 deductibles. A public system where you walk in, get treated, and leave. The administrative overhead of the US healthcare system (the billing departments, the insurance negotiations, the prior authorizations) consumes roughly 34% of total healthcare spending, according to a 2019 study in Annals of Internal Medicine by Himmelstein et al. You could cover everyone for less than we currently spend covering some people badly.

Free public transit. Free childcare. Public broadband. A food system that doesn't require SNAP benefits to patch the gaps left by poverty wages and agricultural monopolies.

These aren't add-ons to UBI. They're alternatives to the conditions that make UBI necessary.

Who Benefits from the UBI Frame

Ask yourself who wins when the policy debate stays focused on cash transfers.

Tech companies facing automation backlash get to say "we'll fund UBI" instead of "we'll share ownership of the machines." Landlords get to keep the housing stock private and profitable. Insurance companies get to keep their position as toll booths between you and your doctor. The entire extractive layer of the economy stays intact; it just gets a new revenue stream funded by the public.

Milton Friedman proposed a version of UBI, the negative income tax, in the 1960s. He was explicit about the political logic. A universal cash benefit could replace the welfare state. No more public housing. No more food stamps. No more Medicaid. Just a check and the market. His intellectual heirs at the Cato Institute still make this argument.

When the libertarian right and the Silicon Valley center agree on a policy, and that policy happens to leave the ownership structure of the economy completely untouched, you should be asking who it's actually for.

The Harder Question

The real question isn't "should people have money?" Of course they should. The real question is why does everything cost so much in the first place?

Why does insulin, a drug discovered in 1921 whose patent was sold for $1, cost $300 a vial? Why does a one-bedroom apartment in a mid-tier American city cost $1,500 a month? Why does a year of public college cost $25,000? Why does having a baby cost $18,000 on average?

These prices aren't natural. They're the result of policy choices, market concentration, regulatory capture, and deliberate underinvestment in public alternatives. Fixing them requires confronting power, not routing around it with a monthly check.

UBI is a fine idea. It's just not a sufficient one. And the enthusiasm it generates, from people who would never in a million years support public housing or Medicare for All, should tell you everything you need to know about what it threatens and what it doesn't.

The most radical thing you can do isn't give everyone cash. It's make cash less necessary.